The Shifting Metagame of Dota 2

When discussing high-level play in Dota 2, it's nearly impossible to avoid the term "metagame." For the uninitiated, the metagame is, by definition, the "game outside of the game" - in Dota 2, this mostly encompasses drafting and laning strategies. As an example, the current metagame favors a certain set of heroes above others - the "first ban/first pick" set of heroes such as Nyx Assassin, Keeper of the Light, Batrider, and more. But why is this? Why are some heroes so well favored in one version, then fall off the scene when another comes out? Even within the same version there are shifts in how heroes are laned, used, and perceived, and then there are heroes who seem to stick around no matter what - let's discuss why.

We'll start with an example of a hero who has been around ever since the first International, Dark Seer. This hero has been a top pick/ban in Dota 2 for practically its entire life cycle - but why? What does he have that keeps him so relevant, while other heroes seem to be on a never ending roller coaster ride in and out of favor? In fact, he has several valuable characteristics that keep him relevant no matter what strategies or heroes the metagame favors. Let's break them down one by one.

First off, Dark Seer is a very versatile laner and can handle a lot of matchups. The power of Ion Shell lets him farm even in an off-balance laning scenario, such as a 1v2 or 1v3 long lane, and allows him to put enough pressure on heroes (especially melee heroes) and the tower in that lane to require a the opposing team to pay at least a bit of extra attention to him, lest their farming hero get zoned out of lane and their tower drop quite early. Surge allows him to escape from most bad situations with only 2 points in the ability, again allowing him to lane in dangerous places where other heroes would be too vulnerable to risk placing them there.

If the off-lane proves too dangerous, he can stack jungle creeps and farm them with Ion Shell, getting his levels and farm safely out of sight of the enemy team. Finally, he is both an able and potent mid lane pick, especially against melee heroes such as Magnus (and near-melee such as TA). This means that Dark Seer, if picked, does very little to "lock in" a team's lineup - they don't need to pick around him like they would if they picked a hero such as Anti-Mage (who requires a team to be built to support him) in the first phase.

This guy is almost always a good pick

Secondly, Dark Seer has a large amount of utility in his skillset. He can assist an allied hero in positioning or escaping with Surge, put constant pressure on a lane with Ion Shell spam, set up his team's area of effect spells with Vacuum, and single-handedly turn a teamfight with a well placed Wall of Replica. This wide range of strength means that no matter what sort of strategy a team ends up picking around, be it ganking, pushing, or turtling, Dark Seer can always be useful. So we have a hero who is both easy to fit into a lineup and powerful no matter what sort of team he has - that's a recipe for being picked often and sticking around.

The second type of pick is easier to classify and explain - heroes that are simply stronger in their role than others due either to their own recent buffs or recent nerfs to others in their role. Heroes like the current Nyx Assassin, Lifestealer, and Phantom Lancer are great examples of this - all three have received large buffs in the last balance patch, and all three are common pickups.

Note: In the case of Nyx, being banned in nearly every game, though this is partially because he also has laning versatility similar to Dark Seer.

This is, as mentioned, because they are particularly strong in their specific role, which means they risk falling off the map when either they receive nerfs or other heroes in their role receive buffs - thus we're likely to see different carries become popular if Phantom Lancer loses some agility gain, or if Lifestealer's rage is nerfed back down. Other heroes have been in this position before - Rubick, who (while still powerful) is nowhere near as highly valued as he used to be after the Fade Bolt nerf, and Invoker has all but fallen off the map since his base damage nerf. The main point is that heroes who are picked purely for their overwhelming strength in a specific role are unstable picks, and could either stick around or disappear as each new version comes along.

Strong right now, but will he phase out in the next version?

The third (and final) type of pick I want to mention in this article is the pick that seems to simply appear for no reason and with no warning - the recent upswing in Clockwerk and Storm Spirit picks are examples of this. While Clockwerk did receive an Agility gain boost in the most recent balance patch, that was no more than a minor piece of his popularity surge.

Storm Spirit was untouched in the last balance patch, and yet he has gone from a niche pick to a reasonably common second phase mid pickup, even being picked in the first phase or banned in the second against some teams and players. What makes these types of picks popular is usually not changes in the hero itself, but changes in the environment they will be placed in - changes in the major heroes being picked can open windows for niche heroes to push through and make their faces known.

In addition, sometimes all a hero needs is the be "discovered" - a player simply needs to show the scene what a hero can do and their popularity will soar. The aforementioned examples of Clock and Storm are a mixture of both - several players have begun using them in new ways and using new builds (not maxing Flare first? Blasphemy!), and the pervasiveness of certain heroes (Lifestealer in particular comes to mind) allows them to show off their power in ways outdated picks did not.

Storm is back, and his strength is leaving us to wonder why he left in the first place!

So there we have three "classes" of picks that can be seen in any version of Dota 2. There are certainly more nuanced explanations for many of them, and even some other classes and subclasses that I can't expound upon in order to keep this blog to a manageable length (versatile tri-lane supports come to mind, as well as signature heroes), but I hope this has helped some people who don't quite understand why certain heroes are or are not being picked, and why some heroes seem to stick around while others come and go.

With that said, what do you guys think will be the next breakout hero? Will we see Warlock begin to take a bigger role, perhaps? Will Broodmother surge back? Maybe Mirana will make a comeback, or perhaps we'll see the appearance of Slark. My vote is for Omniknight - he has the drawbacks of being difficult to lane and needing to farm as a support, but his power in the right situation is unbelievable. Post your thoughts below!