Predictable Picks: A Look Into The Red Side Bans At This Year's Worlds

In recent patches we have seen the rework of many different champions. In 5.14 we saw the change of Gangplank, followed soon after in 5.15 with Fiora, and then in 5.16 with the juggernauts. While all these changes were needed, as many of them had out dated kits, the changes completely changed the landscape of the rift. Top laners made a drastic move from tanks to carries, bottom lane adopted a new unlikely member in Mordekaiser, and once again utility mages such as Oriana and Lulu made their appearance in mid. At first glance it seems like a positive change, however as recently highlighted in the League of Legends Worlds Tournament these changes left red side banning at an extreme disadvantage. 

Mordekaiser

The power Mordekaiser now brings to the competitive scene is a full 180 from his previous self. With the change to his W giving him solo EXP while being in a duo lane as well as ultimate now allowing for a dragon ghost, his value sky rocketed. His innate tankyness from his shield passive as well as the typical health driven build makes him far more durable than most other ADC’s. His lack of range is compensated by his ability to use his ultimate on dragon and siege with it. Similarly, his ultimate turns a fight into a 4v6 if consumed on a champion. It is for all of these reasons that he became a near 100% pick ban in this year’s worlds. However the problem with this is not his strength, but when in the draft phase he was either picked or banned.

Mordekaiser has become a red side problem. He has all the power to control the tempo of the game starting from laning phase with his W passive, to sieging opportunities with the spawn of each dragon. If left open it will most certainly be first picked as shown in the group stages of Worlds.  It is because of this that red side must ban him out.

The Master of Metal has made an appearance in all but one pick and ban phase during group stages. This statistic is not surprising to many, however what is alarming is that out of 49 total games he was red side banned in 41 of them. He was also banned by blue 3 times, 1^st picked 4 times and fell through the whole phase once. To add on to his already impressive showing is his 100% win rate in the 4 games he appeared. The lopsided ban rate presents a problem with little to no immediate solution. To make matters worse, Mordekaiser’s one hard counter creates and even bigger banning issue for the red side team.

Gangplank

When thinking about Mordekaiser weaknesses the first that comes to mind is his ability to be kited. He lacks gap closers or movement buffs making getting onto backline squishies a difficult task. It is for this exact reason that Gangplank excels in this matchup. With his rework, Gangplank has massive zone control as well as the ability to impede movement speed. His new barrels create an AOE slow if detonated by him, and his ultimate became more potent and far stronger of a tool. It is because of this that we see him as a direct counter to Mordekaiser. However, this is not the solution to the red side first pick of Mordekaiser.

Because Gangplank is such a hard counter to excels Mordekaiser, his value as a champion exceeds that of Mordekaiser. If both champions were to be left open, blue side would no doubt take Gangplank with their first pick then almost nullifying the red side Mordekaiser pick.

Similarly even left open alone, his utility and power make him a very promising and safe first pick. Similar to Mordekaiser, his pick ban statistics are extremely one sided. He was red side banned in 39 out of 49 games, blue side banned in 6, and 1st picked in the remaining 6 games. Even more impressive is through those 6 games, just like Mordekaiser he managed to keep a 100% win rate. If the kit wasn’t convincing enough, the stats prove that in fact there is a need for a shift in his power.         

 Lulu

Coincidentally the one champion that has the ability to change this scenario, Lulu, ends up making pick ban even more predictable. Because of here extremely well scaling speed buff as well as her ability to make Mordekaiser even stronger with her shields and ultimate she becomes another common ban. If the first ban by red side is not that of a Mordekaiser or Gangplank, a simple blue side ban of Lulu forces the next two to follow suit on red side. However if the first two red side bans are Gangplank and Mordekaiser, the third comes down to whether or not there is something the red team prioritizes not playing against more than Lulu. If not, then the third and final ban will be Lulu almost giving the red side no options while banning.

Being another power pick, Lulu also has a very high pick ban rate. However unlike that of Mord and GP hers is not nearly as lopsided. She has been banned by red in 15 out of 49, banned by blue in 14, picked by blue in 10, and only fallen to the red side 6 out of the 45 games played in group stages. It can also be noted that of these 6 times, 2 were because either Gangplank or Mordekaiser were left open for a first pick. While her win rate might not be as impressive, she definitely holds a lot of power over this year’s Worlds pick and ban phase.

Outcome

So what exactly has come out of this? The biggest thing that stands out is the win rate based on side. Through the first 49 games blue side has taken 29 victories leaving them at a 59.2% win rate. This win rate is a lot higher than was to be suspected prior to the tournament. However what is even more worrying is its transition into a best of 5 format. Nearing almost 60%, the blue side statistically speaking almost guarantees a best of 5 series victory. With this in mind, if given the option teams will most likely always choose blue side during the knockout stages. It is an unfortunate statistic that will need to be monitored in the coming weeks. If it is held true through the next round, it may cause a ripple effect onto balancing before future events and tournaments. While big changes may be needed, its placement within the season will be reviewed and thoroughly planned before being put into action.